Oscars Predictions 2025: A Post-Election Race That’s in Pursuit of Happiness

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories

Emilia Perez
Netflix

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 14, 2024): It’s time to get serious… but not too serious.

The presidential election may have cast a shadow over awards season, but Hollywood’s engine for accolades and recognition is churning, undeterred. The fall film festivals have concluded, debuting a cascade of Oscar contenders that now march toward the voting booths as phase one unfolds. With only two weeks to go until the first prominent critics’ awards are handed out, anticipation is building. Influential groups such as the New York and L.A. Film Critics, the National Board of Review, and the Gotham Awards will soon weigh in, offering early hints about potential frontrunners and surprises.

Among this year’s most celebrated entries, Sean Baker’s dramedy “Anora” has garnered nearly universal acclaim. The film has enjoyed a slow and deliberate rollout since it took home the Palme d’Or in May. Despite its restrained release strategy, opening on just six screens over the Oct. 18 weekend, “Anora” managed to gross an impressive $550,000 in its first weekend, accumulating $7.6 million. This strategy of patience and word-of-mouth appears to be paying off, positioning “Anora” as a steady and unmissable contender as the season heats up.

Meanwhile, Hollywood’s high-octane blockbuster offerings, Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II” and Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked,” are set to make significant box-office splashes. These consumer-friendly releases have the potential to draw broad audiences, boosting Oscar ratings while appealing to the Academy’s broader voting base. The scale and spectacle of both films make them early frontrunners in a race that could see the Academy embracing blockbuster titles, especially those with the power to bring a cinematic spark to the awards ceremony itself.

On the other end of the spectrum are more unconventional offerings. Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical, “Emilia Pérez,” and Brady Corbet’s historical epic, “The Brutalist,” have stirred some division among festivalgoers. Still, their ambitious scope and thematic relevance have captured the industry’s attention. Acquired by streaming giants Netflix and A24, these films have the backing to make substantial Academy runs. “Emilia Pérez” and “The Brutalist” offer innovative narratives and lush, sprawling cinematography that speak to our complex, post-Trump era, reflecting a world in flux. Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” similarly fits this mold, bringing audiences deeper into its futuristic world while adding emotional heft to the franchise’s sweeping visuals. This highly anticipated sequel from Villeneuve, known for his cinematic precision, is likely to feature prominently in technical categories if not Best Picture.

Edward Berger’s religious thriller “Conclave” makes quiet but impactful strides. With a story that deftly navigates themes of faith, power, and secrecy, “Conclave” may gain traction under the Academy’s preferential ballot system, where films with a devoted fanbase can edge out the competition. The film’s awards prospects are bolstered by standout performances from Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini, who could find themselves in acting races. With a front-running adapted screenplay in the mix, “Conclave” could mark a milestone for Focus Features, which has yet to claim a Best Picture win.

As this year’s Oscar race unfolds, these early contenders — dramatic, bombastic or unconventional — offer a glimpse into an industry that balances audience appeal with artistry. With the year-end eligibility and January voting period fast approaching, the stakes are high, but in a fun way. Let’s not take all this too seriously nowadays.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

The latest updates to the Oscar predictions are below.

Top 4 projected nomination leaders (films): TBA

Top 4 projected nomination leaders (studios): TBA

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

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