Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Searchlight Pictures
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov 14, 2024): Following his success with “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which won four Oscars, director Edward Berger returns with the political and religious thriller “Conclave,” propelling Ralph Fiennes back into the Oscar conversation for Best Actor. Fiennes, who last received an Oscar nod for his roles in best picture winners “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “The English Patient” (1996), is widely viewed as overdue for recognition. His consistent, lauded performances in films like “The Grand Budapest Hotel” have only deepened the puzzling absence of a Best Actor win on his resume, making his prospects for “Conclave” one of this season’s most compelling narratives.
Adrien Brody, an Oscar winner for his role in 2002’s “The Pianist,” is also making a significant comeback with his performance in “The Brutalist.” While Brody has maintained a steady career with roles in “King Kong,” “Midnight in Paris,” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” his post-Oscar trajectory hasn’t always commanded the same attention. That might change this year, as his intense portrayal of László Tóth has generated early praise, positioning him as a potential candidate to join the elite group of actors who have won multiple best actor Oscars. This distinguished club includes Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Marlon Brando.
Brody’s competition is formidable, with Ralph Fiennes’ “Conclave” performance and Colman Domingo’s “Sing Sing” work considered among the season’s most vital. Despite this stiff competition, Brody’s prior win doesn’t necessarily hinder his chances; if anything, the Academy has a tradition of recognizing previous winners. Since 2009, 54 individuals across all categories have won their second (or even third, fourth, and fifth) Oscars. Notably, nine of these repeat wins were in acting categories, with recipients including Daniel Day-Lewis, Meryl Streep, Anthony Hopkins, Frances McDormand, Mahershala Ali, Brad Pitt, Emma Stone, Christoph Waltz, and Renée Zellweger.
Adding further intrigue, the anticipation for Timothée Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan in Searchlight Pictures’ “A Complete Unknown” is palpable, with buzz already building ahead of its first screenings and social reactions, set for next Wednesday, Nov. 20. One source who has viewed an unfinished cut noted, “Oh, he’s a contender!” Chalamet, who became the third-youngest Best Actor nominee in Academy history for “Call Me by Your Name” (2017) at age 22, could break Brody’s record for youngest best actor winner if he clinches the award this year. Chalamet, turning 29 in December, would beat Brody’s record by 279 days, a historic milestone for both young actors in the category.
As the best actor race heats up, these performances signal a season of diversity, with storied veterans and ambitious newcomers vying for the Academy’s attention. With a blend of past Oscar winners and younger talents poised to make history, this category is shaping to be one of the season’s most dynamic and closely watched.
Read the new updates and rankings below.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.
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Image Credit: A24 And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 2 Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (A24) 3 Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24) 4 Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 5 Daniel Craig — “Queer” (A24) Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Aidan Monaghan Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 7 Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 8 Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24) 9 Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) 10 John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) 12 Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 13 Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment) 14 Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24) 15 Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) 16 Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 17 Nicholas Hoult — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.) 18 Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24) 19 Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix) 20 André Holland — “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions) Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute Also In Contention
Rank Performer & Film 21 Keith Kupferer — “Ghostlight” (IFC Films) 22 Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 23 Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 24 Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) 25 Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber) 26 Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) 27 Ian McKellen — “The Critic” (Greenwich Entertainment) 28 Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) 29 Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate) 30 Michael Pitt — “Day of the Fight” (Falling Forward Films) Oscars: Best Actor in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Performers (Best Actor)
Image Credit: GVN Releasing This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.
- Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
- Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Robbie Williams — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- Jason Schwartzman — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
- Barry Keoghan — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Franz Rogowski — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Channing Tatum — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- Lakieth Stanfield — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (A24)
- Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Ian McKellen — “The Critic” (Greenwich Entertainment)
- Michael Pitt — “Day of the Fight” (Falling Forward Films)
- Hugh Jackman — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) **
- Ryan Reynolds — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24)
- Izaac Wang — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- Timothée Chalamet — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- George MacKay — “The End” (Neon) **
- Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon) **
- Hitoshi Omika — “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)
- André Holland — “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions)
- Ryan Gosling — “The Fall Guy” (Universal Pictures)
- Keith Kupferer — “Ghostlight” (IFC Films)
- Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Michael Keaton — “Goodrich” (Ketchup Entertainment)
- Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24)
- Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- Kevin Costner — “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
- Justice Smith — “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “The Idea of You” (Amazon Studios)
- René Pérez — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- Casey Affleck — “The Instigators” (Apple Original Films) **
- Matt Damon — “The Instigators” (Apple Original Films) **
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Nicholas Hoult — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.)
- Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Adam Driver — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Dev Patel — “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)
- Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Nicholas Hoult — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber)
- Anthony Hopkins — “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
- Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
- Jeremy Piven — “The Performance” (GVN Releasing)
- John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Daniel Craig — “Queer” (A24)
- Joseph Quinn — “A Quiet Place: Day One” (Paramount Pictures)
- Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kauchani Bratt — “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Missagh Zareh — “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
- Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24)
- Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Jim Carrey — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
- Glen Powell — “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)
- Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- Tom Hardy — “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)
- Blake Cameron Jones — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Gian Knight Ramirez — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24)
- Daniel Zovatto — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix) **
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More Information (Oscars: Best Actor)
Image Credit: Variety via Getty Images 2024 category winner: Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
