NBA Cup 2024: Who could make a surprise run? Which teams will advance to the knockout round?

The NBA’s in-season tournament is back! The 2024 Emirates NBA Cup begins Tuesday with Group Play. Which teams could make a surprise run? Which players could be breakout performers? Our writers weigh in on the festivities.

(NBA Cup 2024 preview: Schedule, format and groups)

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1. What interests you most about this year’s NBA Cup?

Vincent Goodwill: It may sound silly, but it’s simple from here: Who will take this seriously? It takes a long time for traditions to become commonplace, and if the NBA Cup lasts, it won’t be this generation of players who don’t know a world without it. That said, we saw LeBron James and the Lakers take it seriously last year, and some took that as a signal the Lakers were really a threat in the West. The recent injuries around the league are annoying and take away some sizzle, but someone will sense there’s a real opportunity to gain some prestige here and even some season-long momentum.

Tom Haberstroh: Who gets to go to Sin City? I genuinely think there will be more player buy-in this season based on the major FOMO experienced for teams that didn’t get to go to Vegas last December. Teams were still trying to feel out the vibes last season. This year, I think the Vegas “vacation” is a real draw for teams looking for a winter getaway.

Dan Devine: How much the spate of significant early-season injuries will impact the proceedings. Nearly every group has at least one team missing a top gun: the Magic without Paolo Banchero in East Group A; the Bucks with Damian Lillard now in concussion protocol and the Heat with Jimmy Butler out with an ankle sprain in East Group B; the Clippers sans Kawhi Leonard in West Group A; Kevin Durant and Chet Holmgren missing in West Group B; Zion Williamson and Ja Morant out in West Group C. Any one of those guys could tilt enough games in his team’s favor to propel them out of the groups and into the knockout round. Taking them off the board creates an opportunity for more players — on their own teams or others — to rise up and shake the table. Who will take advantage of it?

Mort Stig Jensen: This might sound pathetic, but it’s the courts. Have you seen Portland’s? Like properly taken a look? That thing is a beauty. Dark gray court with imprinted roses, and a stark red contrast enveloping the whole thing. It’s just bloody gorgeous. Here’s hoping the play of the otherwise unexceptional 3-8 Trail Blazers will take some inspiration.

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2. Which group has the most intriguing matchups?

Devine: West Group C (Denver, Dallas, Golden State, Memphis, New Orleans). The Zion-less Pelicans are a mess at the moment, but all four other teams are pretty good or better.

Golden State has Stephen Curry and a top-five defense. Denver has the best player in the world averaging 30-14-12 and throwing lightning bolts. The Grizzlies are 7-4 and top-five on both sides of the ball, even with Morant, Desmond Bane and about 15 other dudes in and out of the lineup. (The lesson: Never doubt Scotty Pippen Jr. and Jay Huff.) And the Mavericks, scuffling at .500? Well, all they’ve got is the infrastructure of a Finals team, led by Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. That, to me, feels like a recipe for some pretty spicy competition, starting with Klay Thompson’s return to the Bay on Tuesday night.

Jensen: West Group C, especially if the Pelicans and Grizzlies get more bodies off the injured list and join the party. Individualism sells, so offering fans Joker, Luka, Steph, Ja and Zion is one heck of a selling proposition, particularly for a tournament that’s still finding its feet.

Goodwill: If Kevin Durant were healthy, West Group B (Thunder, Suns, Lakers, Jazz, Spurs) would be a strong contender, especially with Big Slim starting to find his footing in San Antonio. But it’s clear West Group C has a lot of elements for good drama, with the Warriors, Grizzlies, Mavericks and Nuggets leading the pack. Only the injury-riddled Pelicans bring up the rear. Those four have real dreams on playing deep into May and reclaiming reputations or supremacy in the West. The Nuggets are being carried by Nikola Jokić, who is playing at a higher level than his peak. We’ll see if the MVP keeps it there against these teams.

Haberstroh: West Group C. We get the best matchup possible, Klay’s comeback game in Golden State, on opening night. Spicy! There are some bummer injuries here, to be sure. We don’t know if we’ll see anything from Ja Morant, Aaron Gordon and Zion Williamson (Dejounte Murray is already out). But this group is loaded.

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3. Which below-.500 team could make a surprise run?

Haberstroh: Knicks. To me, they’re clearly the best sub. 500 team in the NBA. Here’s my question: With Deuce McBride dealing with knee soreness and Mitchell Robinson out with a foot injury, is Tom Thibodeau going to play the starters all 48 minutes on Tuesday vs. the Sixers? We know he’ll be tempted to ruin Joel Embiid’s comeback game.

Goodwill: Is this the obligatory Eastern Conference question? Because only two teams are playing above .500 right now. The Orlando Magic are playing without Paolo Banchero, but they shouldn’t be counted out. The defense is still hellacious, and while East Group A (New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Nets, Hornets) looks compelling, nobody is really scary. Franz Wagner getting more shots and looks? Yes, please.

Jensen: Knicks. Karl-Anthony Towns (24.9 points, 12.3 rebounds) is playing phenomenally, Jalen Brunson is doing Brunson stuff, and then you have the King Ghidorah of two-way role players in OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart, who complete the lineup. Gimme some of that!

Devine: I’d like to thank the Eastern Conference for giving me so many options from which to choose! Thanks, guys. You shouldn’t have! (No, seriously: You should be better than this.) I’ll go with the Knicks, essentially by default.

New York’s full-season numbers are still skewed a bit by that opening-night bludgeoning at the hands of the Celtics, and Karl-Anthony Towns’ rim protection remains … um … let’s call it a “work in progress.” Since the Boston loss, though, the Knicks have had a league-average defense to go with one of the NBA’s most explosive offenses, and they’re slotted into a group with the Banchero-less Magic, the underwhelming Hornets and the better-than-expected-but-still-not-fearsome Nets. If they can survive Joel Embiid’s season debut on Tuesday, Tom Thibodeau’s club could be in good position to make it to the knockout round; get there, and you’re only one huge game from KAT or Jalen Brunson away from Vegas.

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4. Who will be the breakout star of the tournament?

Devine: Let’s go with Jalen Williams in Oklahoma City. With Holmgren joining every other Thunder center on the shelf, Williams — all 6-foot-5 and 195 pounds of him — is now OKC’s starting 5, as well as its No. 2 option alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and its primary scoring threat/playmaking option when SGA hits the bench. If the Thunder’s brand of small-ball advances out of West Group B, it’ll be partly because J-Dub punched above his weight class well enough to hold up against the likes of Anthony Davis, Victor Wembanyama and Jusuf Nurkić without slumping on the offensive end. It’s a tall task. Good thing J-Dub’s got long arms.

Goodwill: Can you be a breakout star if you’re already a pseudo reality show star? If not, LaMelo Ball could be it. He’s almost at 30 a night here, on crazy 3-point volume. The efficiency isn’t great, but if the NBA Cup surely brings about more eyeballs, reintroducing everyone to the former No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft, with an entertaining, freewheeling style that works in November and December is exactly what this endeavor is supposed to be about.

Haberstroh: OKC’s Jalen Williams. With Kevin Durant out, I think OKC has a pretty clear path to Vegas even without Chet Holmgren. J-Dub put up 28-8-6 as the starting center in OKC’s first game without Holmgren. He’s an electric player in a small market who has the ability to explode on the national scene.

Jensen: With the Thunder down three centers — uh, yikes? — they’re basically forced into playing small, and for someone to crack that rotation. Rookie wing Dillon Jones can do pretty much everything, but has barely played due to how stacked the roster is. Now is the time to roll him, especially when you consider they’re going to need some rebounding.

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5. Which teams will advance to the knockout round?

Jensen: I’d like to thank our Yahoo editors for putting out butts firmly on the line here, and I suspect my personal FG% on this one will be very Fred VanVleet-esque. Sod it, let’s party. West: Wolves, Thunder, Nuggets, and Warriors as the wild card. East: Knicks, Pacers, Celtics, and Cavaliers as the wild card.

Haberstroh: I’m writing this in blood: New York, Miami, Boston and Cleveland out East. Minnesota, OKC, Golden State and Dallas out West. I really wanted to put Charlotte here, but Thibs gon’ Thibs.

Devine: Oh, boy, this has a chance to look very wrong in a couple of weeks, doesn’t it? Let’s go with the Knicks, Pacers, Celtics and Cavaliers in the East, and the Kings, Thunder, Nuggets and Warriors in the West. (I know the Kings haven’t been quite as good as the Rockets, Wolves or Clippers this season; consider this a vibes-based dice-roll on an offense I believe in, a defense that feels like it’s getting better, three All-Star-caliber finishers in De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan, and the spiritual sense that a gimmick like the in-season tournament deserves a gimmick like lighting the beam.)

Goodwill: These picks are sure to be right, right? New York, Indiana, Boston and Cleveland in the East (funny how that works). And in the West, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Denver and Dallas (amazing how it looks like the playoffs from last spring). Call me a wuss. Chalk.